Spotlight on Taleb’s Turkey. How to exploit an interesting perspective.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of many thought-provoking books, has come up with the concept of The Turkey Problem.

A turkey that is fed every day will believe that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day. But then, the day before Thanksgiving, the unexpected happens as the chart above shows.

A glance at the charts of individual securities which fall out of bed will show that they look very much like the chart of Taleb’s Turkey.

The chart below shows history. The entire market will certainly go the way of Taleb’s Turkey, from time to time, as it has in the past.

How close to that point are we now?