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The table below is a market forecast summary for the decade, made by seven recognized organizations of experts. The forecasts range from a -5.8% (inflation-adjusted) to a positive 5% (non-inflation-adjusted). All of them can’t be correct, of course.
Twenty-four hours a day is not enough to study these in depth. They are as well written and as well reasoned as they are pointless to read.
Some will be correct; they will attribute it to skill. As Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences winner Daniel Kahneman convincingly shows in his book Thinking, Fast And Slow, correct predictions and correct stock picks are entirely a matter of luck.
If you have the interest, read them, but read them for amusement only.
|
Investment expert |
Forecast |
|
Credit Suisse |
Average annual real gains of 3 per cent for equities over the next 20 to 30 years. |
|
BlackRock |
5% 10-year expected nominal (non-inflation-adjusted) return from U.S. equities. |
|
Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo |
Negative 5.8% real (inflation-adjusted) returns for U.S. large caps over the next seven years. |
|
J. P. Morgan |
4.1% nominal returns for U.S. equities over a 10-15 year horizon. |
|
Morningstar Investment Management |
Negative 0.1% 10-year nominal returns for U.S. stocks. |
|
Research Affiliates |
2% nominal (negative 0.2% real) returns for U.S. large caps during the next 10 years |
|
Vanguard |
Nominal U.S. equity-market returns in the 3.7%-5.7% range during the next decade. |
