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Yesterday, Rosi and I did what all investors should. Take a look.

Call me if you want to discuss this. (705-441-4566)

We sold covered calls on SPY first thing in the morning with an expiry date on the same day at the end of trading.

We got $197.50 US per contract. We have enough shares of SPY to live comfortably on that income without touching the principal.

We did this in less than five minutes after the market opened at 9:30 AM.

If you don’t know how to do this, I will happily show you at no charge. However, I would ask you to make a contribution to our chess tournament.

Yield curve

A yield curve inversion occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, suggesting investors expect an economic slowdown. Such inversions have preceded recessions, making them a closely watched economic indicator.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve is normal today, with long-term rates higher than short-term rates. This indicates that investors have an optimistic outlook on the economy. However, the yield curve does change over time.

The market is overpriced. Without saying when, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America predict a 0% to 1% return on market investments for a decade or longer. A decade or longer!!

In declining markets, it is best to be in cash. Investors should maintain a 50/50 asset allocation. 60/40, 45/55, or a similar asset allocation also works well. Asset allocation accounts for the largest share of portfolio returns, with the market component represented by SPY.

Security selection and market timing do not contribute to returns.

Best wishes!

Risks of artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) offers immense potential for societal and technological advancements, but it also comes with a range of risks. These risks can be categorized into technical, ethical, societal, and existential concerns:


1. Ethical Risks

  • Bias and Discrimination: AI systems can inherit and amplify biases present in the data used to train them, leading to unfair outcomes in hiring, lending, law enforcement, and more.
  • Privacy Invasion: AI technologies, such as facial recognition and data-mining algorithms, can compromise individual privacy.
  • Autonomy and Consent: The use of AI in decision-making (e.g., healthcare or criminal justice) may undermine human autonomy and lead to decisions without proper oversight or understanding.

2. Societal Risks

  • Job Displacement: Automation through AI can lead to significant job losses, especially in industries heavily reliant on repetitive tasks, such as manufacturing and transportation.
  • Widening Inequality: The benefits of AI development may disproportionately favor large corporations and wealthy nations, increasing economic and social disparities.
  • Manipulation and Misinformation: AI-driven content generation (e.g., deepfakes, fake news) can be used to manipulate public opinion and spread misinformation.

3. Technical Risks

  • Unintended Consequences: Poorly designed AI systems may behave unpredictably, causing harm or failing to meet their intended purpose.
  • Security Vulnerabilities: AI systems can be hacked, manipulated, or exploited to carry out malicious activities.
  • Dependence on AI: Over-reliance on AI for critical systems (e.g., infrastructure, healthcare) can lead to significant risks if the system fails.

4. Existential Risks

  • Loss of Control: Advanced AI systems with the ability to make decisions independently could pose a risk if they act contrary to human values or intentions.
  • Weaponization: The development of autonomous weapons could escalate conflicts and lower the threshold for war.
  • Singularity Concerns: The hypothetical creation of a superintelligent AI could result in scenarios where humanity is no longer able to influence its own future.

5. Governance and Regulation Challenges

  • Lack of Transparency: Many AI systems, especially deep learning models, are considered “black boxes,” making their decision-making processes difficult to understand or audit.
  • Insufficient Regulation: Rapid advancements in AI often outpace the development of regulations, leading to gaps in oversight and accountability.
  • Global Coordination: International disagreements on the ethical use of AI and competitive pressures can make it difficult to establish universal standards.

Mitigating the Risks

To address these risks, it’s essential to:

  • Develop transparent and explainable AI systems.
  • Promote interdisciplinary collaboration to address ethical and societal challenges.
  • Implement robust governance frameworks and international agreements.
  • Ensure equitable access to AI benefits while fostering education and workforce retraining.

What to do when the market opens today, January 6, 2025

Call me if you want to discuss this. (705-441-4566), Also, look for our Sunday, January 11, post.

Regardless of what the S&P 500 (the US economy) does, it will recover and continue to rise.

Investors can make 16% annually, safely, selling puts calls on SPY. Only sell and never buy.

Here is how to do it.

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Why invest in the United States?

Since we began this program, we have advocated that our members invest in the United States economy by choosing SPY, an exchange-traded fund mirroring the S&P 500.

Here is what most other countries are doing.

Foreign wealth funds invest in the United States for several key reasons, primarily centered around the country’s economic stability, growth potential, and diversified investment opportunities.

  1. Economic Stability and Safety: The U.S. has one of the world’s largest and most stable economies, providing a secure environment for long-term investments. Its political system, while not without challenges, is relatively stable compared to other global regions. Foreign wealth funds, which often manage large sums of capital for sovereigns or institutions, are attracted to safe, low-risk investments, and the U.S. offers this stability.
  2. Size and Liquidity of Financial Markets: The U.S. has the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, particularly in equities, fixed income, and real estate. This liquidity means that foreign investors can easily enter and exit investments without significant price fluctuations, a crucial factor for large wealth funds seeking flexibility.
  3. Diversification: Investing in U.S. assets allows foreign wealth funds to diversify their portfolios across different sectors, industries, and asset classes. The U.S. economy is highly diversified, encompassing technology, healthcare, energy, finance, and consumer goods. This diversification reduces risk and increases the potential for returns.
  4. Strong Corporate Sector and Innovation: The U.S. is home to many of the world’s largest and most profitable companies, particularly in the technology sector (e.g., Apple, Microsoft, Amazon). These companies are often global leaders in innovation, providing foreign wealth funds with opportunities to invest in high-growth sectors. Moreover, U.S. companies tend to have strong governance standards, transparency, and high levels of operational efficiency, making them attractive to institutional investors.
  5. Currency and Economic Influence: The U.S. dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency, widely used in global trade and finance. Investments in U.S. assets often come with exposure to the dollar, which can serve as a hedge against currency fluctuations in other markets. This makes U.S. investments particularly appealing to wealth funds from countries with less stable currencies.
  6. Political and Legal Environment: The U.S. offers a well-established legal framework, including property rights and contract enforcement, which makes it easier for foreign investors to protect their investments. The U.S. regulatory environment is also relatively transparent, which fosters trust among international investors.

In summary, the combination of economic stability, investment diversification opportunities, liquidity, a strong corporate sector, and a favorable legal environment makes the United States an attractive destination for foreign wealth funds.

What to do when the market opens today, January 3, 2025

Call me if you want to discuss this. (705-441-4566)

First, ignore market fluctuations. Regardless of what the S&P 500 (the US economy) does, it will recover and continue to rise (but not forever).

Investors can still make over $100 US (about $143 CAD) per contract selling covered calls on SPY or it’s equivalent predecessors. That works out to 16% annually, safely, and has done so for 200 years!

Here is how to do it.

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How most of our members ended 2024.

Those of our members who sell puts and calls made $126.5 per board lot of SPY on the last day of 2024. That works out to 16% on investment annually, safely.

For details see “What to do when the market opens today,” published on 2024/12/30.

Best wishes for health, wealth and happiness for 2025 to you all.

Milan

 

 

Start saving early

Call me if you want to discuss this. (705-441-4566)

A survey of a statistically meaningful number of people showed that if they had to do it over again, most would have started saving earlier.

We have no control over market movements, taxation issues, the growth of the economy, regulatory changes, the behavior of other investors, and many other forces that influence our portfolios.  Given that fact, what is the best investment that we can make?

Increasing our savings is arguably it!

By saving and investing the right amount correctly, we can continue our working-year lifestyle into retirement.

  • So, what is the right amount?
  • Which is better, paying off debt or saving?
  • Is paying down leases and business loans, thus building up the value of our business, the same as saving?
  • How do we invest correctly?
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What to do when the market opens today

Call me if you want to discuss this. (705-441-4566)

Regardless of what the S&P 500 (the US economy) does, it will recover and continue to rise.

Investors can make over $300 US per contract selling covered calls on SPY. That works out to 16% annually, safely, and has done so for 200 years!

Here is how to do it.

YOU NEED TO LOGIN TO VIEW THE REST OF THE CONTENT OR LEAVE A COMMENT. Please Login. Not a Member? You can now sign up for $12 for a one-year membership. Join Us

Gold. Yes, or no.

 

 

 

 

 

April 2000                                            April 2024

Gold is being heavily promoted. “Smart investors hold gold,” they say.

The 117-year real return from gold is just above half a percent annually. Unlike most stocks, gold holds its value. Today, a given weight of gold buys the same amount of barley, wheat, or any other staple as it did 5000 years ago.

The chart above shows gold (yellow line) versus SPY  (black line) over four years.

Here is what we should do.

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