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Monday, July 24, 2023. How our fearless, intrepid investor made out last week and what she will do today

The risk in writing (selling) covered calls is entirely due to the underlying security. If that security is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the S&P 500, it will be tracking the US economy as a whole, the best-performing economy on the planet in over 100 years.

Wall Street is constantly telling investors that past performance isn’t indicative of future returns. That is true except when it isn’t, which is most of the time. Confucius said: “Study the past if you would define the future.” We should listen to Confucius.

The best (ETF) tracking the S&P 500 is SPY. It is the oldest and largest ETF with the smallest bid/ask spread.

On Mondays, our fearless, intrepid investor writes (sells) covered calls on SPY with a strike price just out-of-the-money, expiry date, Friday of the same week.

Half the time, the weekly  decline will be greater than the premium income received during that week. Nevertheless, the premium income will be there every week. Investors can ignore any weekly decline knowing that SPY will recover over the long term, according to Confucius.

In a rising market such as we have had in the pasts few weeks, investors do better by simply holding SPY and NOT writing (selling) covered calls on it.

What will the market do in the near future? The put/call ratio is a fairly reliable indicator.

What will our fearless, intrepid investor do when the market opens today?

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Monday, July 10, 2023. How our fearless, intrepid investor made out last week and what she will do today

Our fearless, intrepid investor owns only SPY, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) precisely tracking the S&P500 which tracks the American economy, the strongest economy for over 100 years and likely to remain that way in the foreseeable future. History strongly suggests that all investors should do that.

Why?

The risk in writing (selling) covered calls is entirely due to the underlying security. SPY is not Enron or Nortel or WorldCom or any other security that fell out of bed.

Adjusting for market holidays, on Mondays our fearless, intrepid investor writes (sells) covered calls on SPY with a strike price just out-of-the-money, expiry date, Friday of the same week.

About half the time, the weekly  decline will be greater than the premium income received during that week. Nevertheless, the premium income will be there every week. Investors can ignore any weekly decline knowing that SPY will recover over the long term.

That’s what happened last week.

What will she do when the market opens today?

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Monday, July 3, 2023. How our fearless, intrepid investor made out last week and what she will do today

Today is a stock market holiday in Canada, but not in the U.S..  Our fearless, intrepid investor owns only American securities. Based on history, all investors should. The American economy  has been the strongest economy for over 100 years and is likely to remain that way in the foreseeable future. One of the best gifts the Canadian government has given Canadians is to eliminate the foreign content restrictions from registered (tax-advantaged) portfolios in 2005.

Our fearless, intrepid investor was assigned on her covered calls that expired last Friday, July 30th and made significant money from the premium income  and the growth for which she allowed. She is now entirely in cash.

What will she do when the market opens today?

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Monday, June 26, 2023. How our fearless, intrepid investor made out last week and what she will do today

When she was assigned on Friday, June 16 she should have stayed entirely in cash. Over the long run, cash loses its purchasing power at the rate of inflation. However, it is the best place to be in a declining market.

In a rising market, simply holding a security will produce better results than writing covered calls on it.

Having misread the put/call ratio prediction, our fearless, intrepid investor bought as many shares of SPY while maintaining her 50/50 asset allocation. The market continued to decline so did her portfolios.

How bad is that?

What will she do when the market opens today?

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Monday, June 19, 2023. How our fearless, intrepid investor made out last week and what she will do today

Last Monday, June 12, our fearless, intrepid investor wrote (sold) covered calls on SPY, $5.00 out-of-the-money, expiry date Friday of the same week, that is, June 16 (C 16JUN23 435.00). Combining the premium income with the market rise, she made a decent amount of money. However, SPY rose by more than five dollars, and she was assigned and was entirely in cash.

In a rising market, simply holding a security will produce better results than writing covered calls on it.

What will she do when the market opens today?

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