Monday, January 9, 2023. How our fearless, intrepid investor made out last week and her plans for today

In previous posts, we mentioned that our fearless, intrepid investor lost $US10,990.00 in her “fun” portfolio over one year by writing (selling) just out-of-the-money covered calls on Novavax (NVAX) on Mondays, expiry dates on Fridays of the same week. How much fun is that?

She ignored habit number three, which recommends that investors buy the American market as a whole and not pick individual stocks. Investors can buy the American market as a whole by acquiring an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500. 

There are more ETFs now than there are individual securities, but only half a dozen or so track the S&P 500.  SPY is the best. It is the largest, oldest, and most heavily traded US ETF. It has the narrowest bid/ask spread, one of investors’ expenses that most tend to ignore.

All risk in selling covered calls comes from the market movement of the underlying security. When she owned NVAX, it dropped to a greater, far greater, extent than the premium income derived from selling covered calls on the security. So, no more writing covered calls on individual securities for her.

Further,  she decided to write (sell) covered calls sufficiently out-of-the-money to earn about 1% per month or slightly more. That would significantly reduce the possibility of being assigned while yielding a decent return!

What did she do last Monday?

She sold covered calls on SPY at $8.00 out-of-the-money, expiry date Friday, January 6 (

SPY rose by just under $8.00 last week, giving her a decent return.

What will she do today when the markets open at 9:30 AM?

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Rejoice! The market is down! Bargain territory! V2

On September 2 of this year, we sent out the post you see below. Since that time, the market has fallen further.  The material is worth reviewing.

Considering that the money that you will need in the next few years does not belong in the market, if you have not bought into this bargain territory, think about doing so now.

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The S&P 500 is down over 17% year-to-date. Bargain territory! If you have not re-balanced your core portfolio to take advantage of the bargain, consider doing so.

The Muppets are running for the doors. The same people who look for bargains when buying their groceries or clothes for the children or airplane tickets or looking for parking spots are ignoring this bargain.

Muppets (stupid and ineffectual people)? The second largest investment bank, Goldman Sachs, uses the term to describe its clients.

From Greg Smith’s Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs: “I attend derivatives sales meetings where not one single minute is spent asking questions about how we can help clients. It’s purely about how we can make the most possible money off of them.”

Investment banks are not our friends. We need to be aware of that even though we do need them to execute our buy/sell orders.

Don’t be fooled by the fact that year-to-date, the Toronto Stock exchange has declined less than the S&P 500. Intelligent investors think long-term. Note the 10-year chart below.

With the habits of the Monday Morning Program, luck hardly matters. Good luck!

Tuesday, December 13, 2022. How our fearless, intrepid investor made out last week and what she did yesterday

We previously stated that writing (selling) just out-of-the-money covered calls on Novavax (NVAX) on Mondays, expiry dates on Fridays of the same week, our fearless, intrepid investor lost $US10,990.00 in her “fun” portfolio over one year.

The risk in selling covered calls entirely comes from the market movement of the underlying security. When she owned NVAX, it dropped to a greater, far greater, extent than the premium income derived from selling covered calls on the security.

What did she learn from that experience?

Two things!

First, pay attention to habit number three, which states buy the American market as a whole and do not pick stocks.

Secondly,  she learned to write (sell) covered calls sufficiently out-of-the-money to earn about 1% per month or slightly more. That would significantly reduce the possibility of being assigned!

What did she do when the NYSE opened at 9:30 AM yesterday?

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Hopes for 2023 US Market. December 2, 2022 Survey Results

Greetings members,
Why not give a Membership to a friend or loved one? It could be the perfect gift for Christmas… As a Member, you know how valuable it is!

Again, a thank you to all who gifted a membership or a one-on-one zoom meeting to friends and relatives.

And again, our sincere gratitude to all members who took the time to respond to our Friday, November 18 survey about what they hope the market does in 2023. Time is an irreplaceable resource. We appreciate your involvement.

“What do you hope for the US market in 2023?

Like most people, I hope that it rises.

25%

I hope that it drops to allow me to buy bargains.

28.6%

I don’t care. If it rises I will take profits. If it drops I will buy bargains.

46.4%

Investors who hope that the market will rise will be disappointed often. Investors who selected choice number two or three are only disappointed when the market moves laterally. It rarely does so.

We are delighted to note that 75% of our members are in that group and hope the other 25% start thinking that way.

You can read some helpful comments below.

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Monday, December 5, 2022. How our fearless, intrepid investor made out last week and her plans for today

We previously stated that writing (selling) just out-of-the-money covered calls on Novavax (NVAX) on Mondays, expiry dates on Fridays of the same week, our fearless, intrepid investor lost $US10,990.00 in her “fun” portfolio over one year.

The risk in selling covered calls entirely comes from the market movement of the underlying security. When she owned NVAX, it dropped to a greater, far greater, extent than the premium income derived from selling covered calls on the security.

She ignored habit number three, which is to buy the American economy as a whole by using an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500. That means no picking individual stocks.

Additionally,  she learned to write (sell) covered calls sufficiently out-of-the-money to earn about 1% per month or slightly more. That would significantly reduce the possibility of being assigned!

What will did she do when the NYSE opened at 9:30 AM today?

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Monday, November 28, 2022. How our fearless, intrepid investor made out last week and her plans for today

Writing (selling) just out-of-the-money covered calls on Novavax (NVAX) on Mondays, expiry dates on Fridays of the same week, our fearless, intrepid investor lost $US10,990.00 in her “fun” portfolio over one year.

The risk in selling covered calls entirely comes from the market movement of the underlying security. When she owned NVAX, it dropped to a greater, far greater, extent than the premium income derived from selling covered calls on the security.

She ignored habit number three, which is to buy the American economy as a whole by using an exchange-traded fund which tracks the S&P 500. That means no picking individual stocks.

Additionally,  she learned to write (sell) covered calls sufficiently out-of-the-money to earn about 1% per month or slightly more. That would significantly reduce the possibility of being assigned!

Last Monday, November 21, our fearless, intrepid investor  wrote (sold) covered calls on SPY, strike price $6.00 out of the money, expiry date Friday of the same week, that is, November 25. (C 25NOV22 400.00)

She made $US0.75 per share in premium income. Then what happened?

When SPY rose just to below $US400.00, she brought back the covered calls which she sold (C 25NOV22 400.00), meaning that she was out of her obligation to sell her SPY shares below market price to the buyer of her covered calls. The cost of buying the back was lower than the premium income she received when she sold.

She was now in a position to sell more covered calls on SPY and the new, higher price level.
On 11/25/22, she sold SPY covered calls @ $409.00 and got a decent premium income.

At the money was $403.00, allowing $US6 per share for growth.

What will did she do when the NYSE opened at 9:30 AM today?

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How much time do you spend driving to and from work? October 18, 2022 survey results

Again, a thank you to all who gifted a membership or a one-on-one zoom meeting to friends and relatives. We think that they make ideal gifts. Consider it.

And again, our sincere gratitude to all members who took the time to respond to our Friday, November 18 survey about time spent driving. Time is an irreplaceable resource. We appreciate your involvement.

How much time do you spend driving to and from work?
No time 17.9%
Less than 15 minutes 39.3%
15 to 59 minutes 28.6%
Over an hour 14.3%

You can you read some worthwhile comments below.

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Monday, November 21, 2022. How our fearless, intrepid investor made out last week and her plans for today

Our fearless, intrepid investor spent two weeks sailing on a 42-foot catamaran in the British Virgin Islands with no internet connection. Knowing this would be the case, she wrote covered calls on SPY, strike price $10.00 out of the money, expiry date three weeks away instead of her usual one week away. (SPY C 18NOV22 396.00)

She was assigned and made 1.1% on her investment. You can’t go broke taking a profit.
During the same time, the market, as represented by SPY, went up 5.17%!!
Two points here. First, there will always be investments that are better than the ones you just made. And second, simply buying and holding an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500, SPY is ideal, is an effortless way to do well. With huge fluctuations. That is why the money which we will need in the next few years does not belong in the market.
As we frequently state, historically, 1.) over the long term, 2.) properly selected US market index exchange-traded funds, 3.) held in tax-advantaged accounts, 4.) in an appropriate asset allocation, have been the investors best way for growing savings and are likely to remain so for many years.

She did lose $US10,990.00 in her “fun” portfolio over one year, writing just out-of-the-money covered calls on Novavax (NVAX) on Mondays, expiry dates on Fridays of the same week.

What she learned from her NVAX experience is to write (sell) covered calls sufficiently out-of-the-money to earn about 1% per month or slightly more. That would significantly reduce the possibility of being assigned!

Using that approach, she has done well, being assigned occasionally, like the BVI case you see above.

What will did she do when the NYSE opened at 9:30 AM today?

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